A new analysis using NHS data suggests the covid-19 pandemic continues to shape how major conditions are being diagnosed in England, with sharp falls in recorded depression, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and osteoporosis still evident years after the first wave of disruption.
The study, published in the BMJ and based on OpenSAFELY data covering 29 million people between April 2016 and November 2024, found that diagnoses of depression were 27.7% lower than expected compared with pre-pandemic trends. Recorded diagnoses were also lower than expected for asthma by 16.4%, COPD by 15.8% and osteoporosis by 11.5%.
Long-term gaps in diagnosis remain visible
The researchers said the pattern points to more than a short-term interruption in care. Diagnosis rates initially fell during the early pandemic, partly recovered by late 2021, and then declined again for depression from 2022 onwards. The effect was most pronounced among younger adults aged 20 to 39 years, and among people of white or mixed ethnicity.
Professor Sam Norton, a co-author of the study, said the trend was difficult to reconcile with other indicators of need, noting that disability benefit claims for mental health conditions had increased substantially over the same period. That, the researchers argued, suggests the falling diagnosis rates may not reflect improving mental health.
CKD diagnoses moved in the opposite direction
Not all conditions followed the same pattern. The study found that chronic kidney disease diagnoses were 34.8% higher than expected. Lead author Dr Mark Russell said the increase may reflect more testing and greater awareness after guideline changes and the introduction of new treatments, although the pandemic itself may also have played a role through direct effects of covid-19 infection or delays in diagnosing related conditions such as diabetes.
The findings also highlighted unequal recovery across population groups. Dementia diagnoses returned to pre-pandemic levels for people of white ethnicity and for those living in less deprived areas, but remained below expected levels in other ethnic groups and in more deprived communities.
What the researchers say the NHS data can reveal
The team said the results show how real-time anonymised NHS data could be used to monitor disease trends and identify inequities earlier. According to the authors, that kind of surveillance could help shape how care is delivered and where pressure is greatest.
For the NHS, the message is that the legacy of the pandemic is not limited to backlogs in appointments and operations. It is also visible in the diagnosis of common long-term conditions, where delays or missed opportunities for assessment may still be affecting patients well beyond the emergency phase of covid-19.
Source: News-Medical report on the BMJ study; study reference published in the BMJ.
Sursa foto: Imagine generată AI
